2024 Presidential Election: Latest Polls and Projections
Biden vs. Trump Battleground State Polls
According to the latest polls, President Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Trump in several key battleground states. In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 3 points (49% to 46%), while in Michigan, the race is tied (48% to 48%).
State-by-State Poll Results
- Pennsylvania: Biden +3 (49% to 46%)
- Michigan: Tied (48% to 48%)
- Wisconsin: Biden +2 (47% to 45%)
- Florida: Trump +2 (47% to 45%)
- Ohio: Trump +4 (48% to 44%)
National Polling Averages
Nationwide, Biden has a 5-point lead over Trump (49% to 44%). This lead is wider than his margin of victory in 2020, when he won by just 3.4 points.
Poll Aggregation Methods
The polling averages used by our team are compiled from a variety of sources, including national and battleground state polls. We use a weighted average that gives more weight to polls that are more recent and have a larger sample size.
Forecasts and Projections
Based on the current polls, most forecasters predict that Biden is the favorite to win the 2024 election. However, the race is still considered to be close, and Trump has a chance of winning if he can make up ground in the battleground states.
Consensus Forecast
According to the consensus forecast, Biden has a 65% chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 35% chance.
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